【价值投资与中国读后感】王营描和汉省冲人士区

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本文节选自《价值投资与中国》

TIMELINESS 3 Lawandiotosg
SAFETY 3 RisedzmB

TECHNICAL 3 UedanaBg
BEIR 120 1L00 -Waneg

55 PROECTON

ee Gain

Return

王

营 描 和汉

4067 4631

省

The Timberand Company Went public im
June, 1987 when ioffered 3,685,600 Class
ASshares al $14 each. The offering induded
350,000 shares offered ly Sidney W.
Swartz The funds were Used to repay debt
and buy back stock from existing Sharehold-

CAPITAL STRUCTURE a5 of 92598

Total DebtS$100.0 mi Due冲5Yrs SI000 millL
LT DebtSi000 maL LTInterest S9.0milL

人LT interest earne士 10.1 total interest coverage-

10.1)
(2区ofCap1)

Leases, Uncapitafized Annual rentals $16.2 ml
Pfd Stock None
Common Stock 11.497.327 shs.

Inciudes 和16 ml Class A Shares (one Volte pef
人

后 -一HH

| 2 HH | TD DUOuyUU ULL 3史
人生下1和下03生二 55 S丙

11988 |1989 11990 |1991 11992 | 1993 |1994 | 1995 |1996 | 1997

30
505
条

2

亿2

-

AnvgAnn1PFE Rabo

1 1

和 了 硬 2 2 而 虽
141 1笃 01 131 159 Rela6ve PIE Ratio
| as| 5 Rsg Ann1DivdYigd

下于本到到于于下于于到本Eee 二
人2 | 117和| 11.5% 人的 | 人2司 | 0902 4的 10人和|人.司

33

381
的0多5 5

站t约 了0

特2 390

1 1

锡了 275

8 的

(2 afCap 105%5 | 7了3重 了的 了的 NMF 17.0甸 etm oa Toblcai 他.的
ie 45miloa goolcan 117% | 85% | 92% | 37% | 123% | 175% | 119% | NMF | 123% | 2206 | 220% Retum on Shr Equity | 休的
POSTION FEIETTT 117 | 85和| 92 | 8交| 人3和| 1755 |1105 | NMF | 1入| 22的| 220% Retained toCom Eq 17.0%
CE | | | | 襄 | 5 --| 同 ADirds to Net Prof 奇
RE 四 加8 1生3| BUSINESS The Tberand Co manUiactres and ParteS ETS ne SSE ns 6% of CD55 B Shares Te Sidney 人 SWS
人 f(Avg Cstj 150.1 1426 1805 | and women\'s rugged foctwear and appParel Foctwear and apparel 19062 Famiy Trust owns about 35的 of Class A shares; FMR Com
18.5 24.8 24.5 | Sales Wefe 卫驹 and 25% of 1997 sales total respectively. Int1 669%: Putnam Imv. Inc.73%: State St Res. & Mngmnt Co 72%5
ea 3715 “也20 “村何蝇| sales. 27的,Produces approx 2的 of 15 footwear in i5 Carbbean (498 Proqyj， Chmn: Sidney Suwarz， Pres 8 CEO:- Jegey
Accts Payable 213 ”204 ”30.1| Basin fac 出apparel 基sourced from indep. mandf located abroad 。 Swartz Inc: DE._ Addr- 200 Domain Drive，Stratham，NH 03885
Debtous 基和7 0站| 1的7 depr ra 订4吕.Has about 5.100 empl, 700 shthldrs_ Sid。 Tel: 803.772.0500 ntemet wan.imberland com.
Curenttiab 厢“机T_TE7 | The slu U.S. footwear market is strengthening its presence tn the chil-
ANNUAL RATES Past Past_Estd 95297| finally inning to hurt Timber- drens footwear market，and its interna-
gchangspersj 10Yrs 5 加训-交| land\'s 本 ts，followilng months of bat- tional sales are tncreasing at a rapld pace-
Sales 20.0% 23.5%6 .356 | tering the athletic-shoe manufacturers. We believe that the company will continue
rn Pt 1 2于 The companys performance-footwear line， to garner market share both abroad and in
Dividends -~ hk | just recently the primary driver of top-line the kids-shoe segment through lncreased
Book Value 100% 120%6 230% | growth，is now falling short of expecta- marketing and new product introductions.
tions. Overcapacity ln 和 tndustry 4s lead- Finally TIimberland has recently tmple-
ing to increased prlce competition，and mented a “tler-pricing” strat acfross
6 1251 2126 1758 Timberland has fallen behind tn new prod- ”some of its product lines. The object of this

127.7
150.7
163.1
180

1136 2276 221.1
1322 2747 2389
14.7 219 2553
培 天 了珊

EARNNGS PERSHAREAo
Mar31 Jun30 Sep30 Dec31
d3 dl2 3 人
d的 di 151 的
37 .05 21 148
人 247 TB
1 5 285 1下

uct launches. The company plans to intro-
duce two completely mew performance
lines each year (rather than just a revision
of the previous season\'s model), in order to

spark a rebound tn thls category. For now,
名ou 8h，we have reduced GE projec-

人 to reflect the weakness tn this se8g-
ment、 As a result，Wwe are lowertng our
1998 and 1999 share-net esttmates by
$0.15 and $0.50, respectively to $5.05 and
$5.75. Investors should note, though， that

OQUANTERIYDNIDENDSRAD
Mar31 Jun30 Sep.30_Dec31

NO CASH DVIDENDS
BEING PAD

based on average Share5 out- 67 aa share 站 1905. Next earmings due COuartiery earming 引
人 Excludes 3 romecuring 2 介) nakedeeongE 人 区 0

these targets still represent substantial
Sa -0OVer-year Increases.

imberland\'s 3- to 5-year outiook
remains favorable、 The companys clas-
slc Yellow boot is conttnulng to perform
wel[，with demand outstrip 把 supply in
the September perltod. Timberland 1s also

chargeof 724 ashareandaonetime ganof |3200 milL S184 3 share. 人C) In mij泛ons-

move ls to garner market share tn a flat-
growth category by launchling adaptations
of a product line at difaren风 price potnts，
thus，appealing to a broader consumer
base. 韦 Strategy has already begun to
benehnt the mens segment， 此 Should
help fuel sales tncreases tn additional cate-
ories tn the new millenniumn

-ong-term investors may find these
neutrally ranked shares appealing.
Desplte a recent uptick of the stock\'s price，
tt is Still down over 4596 from its May
high，due to the general weakness of the
overall market and the U.S. footwear in-
dustry At lts current quotation，though,

the lssues 3- to 5- Te appreclatlon poten-
tlal is well above 呈jue Lipes median-

-ornataan 及 CHjiappell Novermbper 20 139398

必和
Price Growth Pers汪tence 馈

Earnings Predictability 5图12 添柏岚《价值线》资料

作为价值投资者，你不应该关心公司过去的交易情况。我来告诉
你们我会首爷看什么。 首先看估值，假如佑值不合适，我就不会再继
续，那么比较合适的佑值意味着什么呢?

同学: P/B比较低。

那账面资产是什么呢，每次看破净股的时候你都需要问资产包

到撒是什么，这些资产到砌值多少钱? 这很简单，只需要快速估算一
下。运营资本是3亿左右，注意这是前三季度的业绩，根据音识不难想
到零售行业通间第四季度是旺季，你回去看上一年四季度的情况就可
以估算今年四季度的数据，佑算出公司在四季度末会累积不少现金。
公司3亿的账面资产，2. 75亿的运营资本，其他的科目大致相抵，账上
有1亿现金，1亿固定资产，再通过后续研究你会发现固定资产其实是
一栋大楼，所以你3亿买下这家公司，得到了2亿的流动资产，其中1亿
是地产，这是很不错的保护了，下行空间有限。

利润表和现金流量表呢? 其中必须要重视的是上税前的利润，你
需要还原没有债务杠杆条件下它的资本回报，这能让你看到这个生意
的本质，它真正的营利能力是多少。大家快速地告诉我，妃税前利油
是多少? 假如你是熟手，不用一秒钟就能看出来，公司的运营利润率
大概是13%，8-8. 5亿的收入，1-1.1亿息税前利润;，那投入的资本呢?
2亿流动资产，其中1亿固定资产，2亿的投入资本，1亿的利润，50%的
资本回报率 〈ROCE) 。所以这是桩不赖的生意。

其实不用多看其他的内容，你只需要5秒钟，就可以看出股票交易
的市值在认资产附近，账面资产是干净的、保守的、有流动性的。1亿
的运营资本加上1亿的固定资产，投入资本占市值的三分之二，2亿的
运营资本产生了约1亿的妃税前利润。所以这肯定古桩不赖的生意。

下一步你要考察的问题是，为什么会出现这样的情况? 如果这是
笔好生意，为什么人们不愿意去持有?

综上：《【价值投资与中国读后感】王营描和汉省冲人士区》值得推荐阅读