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时发现了“蝴蝶效应”。他最初二]犬气预报的数学计算口的微小变化可能给预报结果带来非司寻常和意想不到的影响o蝴蝶效应的概念来自1972垄三Lorenz提交给美禾斗学促i」会的论文“PrediCtability=DoestheFlapofaBntterfly，sWingsinBrazilSetOffaTornadoinTexas?”。关子混沌理论的历史，参见JamesGleick，Chdos:MdkingdNewScience(London:Cardinal，1987)o关于复杂理论，参见MurrayGell-Man，TheQudrkundtheJdgudr:AdventuresintheSimpleundtheComplex(London:Little，Brown8【Co.，1994);Mitchellwaldrop，Complexity:TheEmergingSciencedttheEdge0/(〕rderundChdos(NewYork:Simon&Schnsten1993)。关子科学理论与军思想之间的关系，参见AntoineBonsqnet，TheScienti/iclvdy0/lvur/dre:(〕rderundChdosontheButtle/ields0/Modernity(NewYork:ColumbiaUniversityPress，2009);RobertPellegrini，TheEinhsBetweenScience，Philosophy，undMilitdryTheory:UnderstdndingthePdst，Tmplicdtions/ortheFuture(MaxwellAirForceBase，AL:AirUniversityPress，August1997)，http://www.au.af.nnl/au/awC/angate/saas/pellegrp.pdf.[圃AlanBeyerchen，“ClausewitZ，Nonlinearity，andtheUnpredictabilityofwar，”TnterndtiondlSecurity(winter1992/93);BarryD.watts，Clause\\^dtzianFrictionandFuturewar，McNdirdeer52(washington，DC:NationalDefenseUniversity，InstituteforStrategicStudies，October1996).[坦JohnBoyd，1〕dtternsof〔〕on/lict:ADiscourseonl^/inningundEosing，unpublished，August1987，44，128，availableathttp://www.ausairpower.net/JRB/poc.pdf.[皿JohnBoyd，1〕dtternsof〔〕on/lict:ADiscourseonl^/inningundEosing，unpublished，August1987，79.[坦美防音〖，FieldMdnudl100_5:(〕perdtions(washington，DC:HQDepartmentofArmy，1976)o[皿williamS.Lind，“SomeDoctrinalQuestionsfortheUnitedStatesArmy，”MilitdryReview58(March1977).[皿美防音〖，FieldMdnudl100_5:(〕perdtions(washington，DC:DepartmentoftheArmy，1982)，voL2-l;HubaWassdeCzegean

战略 一部历史 ipad

dL.D.Holder，“TheNewFM100-5，”Miu怕ryReview(July1982)o[皿HubawassdeCzegeandL.D.Holder，“TheNewFM100-5，”MilitaryReview(July1982)o[觐HubawassdeCzegeandL.D.Holder，“TheNewFM100-5，”MilitaryReview(July1982)o[细转弓丨自LarryCable，“ReinventingtheRoundVvheel:InsurgenCy，Counter-InsurgenCy，andPeacekeepingPostColdwar，”Smdlll〈\'drsundTnsurgencies4(Autumn1993):228-262o[型U.S.MarineCorps，FMFM_1:lvur/ighting(washington，DC:Departn1entoftheNavy，1989)，37.[塑EdwardLuttwak，FentdgonundtheArt0/l/t/dr(NewYork:Simon8【Schuster，1985).[纽EdwardLuttwak，Strdtegy:The五ogic0/WdrundFedce(Cambridge，MA:HarvardUniversityPress，1987)，5.关亡′二牛寺点，参见HarryKreisler′sconversationwithEdwardLuttwakinConversations\\^/ithHistoryseries，March1987，availableathttp://globetrotter.berkeley.edu/conversations/Luttwak/luttwak-con0.htnll.[纽EdwardLuttwak，Strategy:TheTogicofWarandPeace(Cambridge，MA:HarvardUniversityPress，1987)，50.[型GregoryJohnson，“LuttwakT`akesaBath，”ReasonPapers20(1995):121-124.[型AntoineHenrideJonuni，TheArtofWar(London:GreenhillBooks，1992)，69(参见chap.7，n.5)。有关作战指挥艺术的思想发琵参见BmCew.Menning，“OperationalArt′sOrigins，”M吏oto′二vReview77，no.5(September-October1997):32-47o[纽Jacobw.Kipp，“TheOriginsofSovietOperationalArt，1917-1936”andDavidM.Glantz，“SovietOperationalArtSince1936，TheTriumphofManeuverwar，”inMichaelD.KrauseandR.CodyPhillips，eds.，HistoricalPerspectivesoftheOperationalArt(washington，DC:UnitedStatesArmyCenterofMilitaryHistory，2005);CondoleezaRice，“TheMakingofSovietStrategy，”inPeterParet，ed.，MakersofModernStrategy，648-676;williamE.Odom，“SovietMilitaryDoctrine，”ForeignAffairs(winter1988/89):114-134

《战略：一部历史》简介

.[鲤i刁三可参见EhotCohen，“StrategicParalysis:SocialscientistsMakeBadGenerals，”TheAmericanSpectator，November1980.[型出版…二1943垄三的著名文okerso/ModernStrotegy口:GordonCraig撰皇写的一篇文章也赋予了他显赫的历史地位。1986垄三版的该文口保留了这篇文章oGordonA.Craig,“Delbrock:TheMilitaryHistorian，”inParet，ed.，MakersofModernStrategy.Delbriick′sGeschichtederKriegskunstimRahmenderPolitischenGeschichte，4vols.，1900-1920(文口的二他3苍到1936仨:二他作者完成)，在walterJ.Renfroe，Jr.番羽译白勺HansDelbriick，trans.，HistoryoftheArtofWarWithintheFrameworkofPoliticalH迂story，4vols.(Westport，CT:GreenwoodPress，1975-1985)…二1975垄三出版之前没有英译本。[鲫J.BooneBartholomees，Jr.，“TheIssueofAttrition，”Parameters(Spring2010):6-9.[靼U.S.MarineCorps，FMFM_1:Warfighting(washington，DC:Departn1entoftheNavy，1989)，28-29.参见CraigA.Tucker，FalseProphets:TheMythofManeuverWarfareandtheTnadeguaciesofFMFM_1Warfighting(FortLeavenworth，KS:SchoolofAdvancedMilitaryStudies，U.S.ArmyCommandandGeneralStaffCollege，1995)，11-12.[鳃CharlesC.Krulak，“TheStrategicCorporal:LeadershipintheThreeBlockwar，”MarinesMagazine，January1999.[鲫MichaelHoward，“TheForgottenDimensionsofStrategy，”ForeignAffairs(Summer1979)，转幸戈…二MichaelHoward，TheCausesofWars(London:TempleSnuth，1983).GregoryD.Foster，“AConceptualFoundationforaTheoryofStrategy，”TheWashingtonQuarterly(winter1990):43-59.DavidJablonsky，WhyTsStrategyDifficult?(CarlisleBarracks，PA:StrategicStudiesInstitute，U.S.ArmywarCollege，1992)o[鲤StuartKinross，ClausewitzandAmerica:StrategicThoughtandPracticefroml\'ietnamtoTrag(London:Routledge，2008)，124.[遍美防晋邗，FieldManual(FM)100_5:Operations(washington，DC:HeadquartersDepartmentoftheArmy，1986)，179-180.

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